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The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and . And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked with a number of bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded player."
Despite the fact that reputable cash has actually can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We chatted with several bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually approached a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at most sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line creeps up a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for revenge?
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat greater bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The total has gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
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No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
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The favorite flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What triggered the line flip? Put simply, the wagering action.
Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Being Available In On Texas'
Chas Cosh edited this page 2025-01-08 00:39:13 +08:00